Are 7.5% Mortgage Rates the New Normal? What It Means for Pittsburgh

Short answer: yes, for now. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), says mortgage rates around 7.5% are the new normal until world events settle down.

What he said

"Unfortunately, I think this 7.5% range [for mortgage rates] is the new normal until we get a resolution on these geopolitical factors." - Robert Dietz, NAHB Chief Economist

Why he says rates are stuck

• High inflation tied to the Iran war
• Big money going into AI and data centers instead of bonds
• The effect may last through 2027
• The good news: the economy is still growing, and he sees low recession risk in 2027

What it means for Pittsburgh

If you're buying: don't wait on a big rate drop. Work on price, seller credits, and rate buydowns.

If you're selling: your buyer pays today's rate. In a flattening market, price for the payment they can afford. Our October 12 Market Watch shows pending sales down three weeks in a row across Allegheny, Westmoreland, Washington, Butler, Beaver and Fayette counties.

Common questions

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?
NAHB's chief economist expects rates to stay around 7.5% until geopolitical issues are resolved. He says the effect may last through 2027.

Why are mortgage rates so high right now?
He points to high inflation tied to the Iran war, and big investment in AI and data centers competing with bonds.

Is a recession coming?
He says the economy is still growing and sees low recession risk in 2027.

Source: NAHB via LBM Journal, Oct 11, 2026

Matt Durbin | eXp Realty

(412) 998-8896 | Broker: (888) 397-7352

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